Risk assessment of ice dams for water diversion projects based on fuzzy fault trees

Abstract Ice dams are among the important risks affecting operational safety and water conveyance efficiency of diversion projects in northern China. However, no evaluation indicator system for ice dam risk assessment has been proposed. Therefore, this paper, based on formation mechanism dams, possibility calculation model were both proposed fuzzy fault tree analysis method. The constructed study mainly includes three aspects: production, transport, submergence conditions. Eighteen basic indicators identified, 72 minimum cut sets obtained by using mountain climb Eight determined as key including meteorological conditions, narrowed cross section, sluice incident, erroneous scheduling judgment, cover influence, flat bed slope, control structures, flow resistance piers. Then, canal from Fenzhuanghe to Beijumahe Middle Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project was taken research object. Combined with expert scoring method, probability be 0.2029 × 10 −2 , which defined a level III risk, is an occasionally occurring risk. results can support prevention operation winter projects.